Bitcoin September Curse? Predicting BTC Price Using Comprehensive Historical Data
September’s Historic Downtrend
Over the nine-year interval from 2014 to 2022, Bitcoin’s September efficiency has largely been bearish. The closing value in September was usually decrease than the opening value, indicating a normal downtrend for the month.
Bitcoin Value 12 months-by-12 months Evaluation
2014: Opened at $479 and closed at $391, a decline of 18.37%.
2015: Opened at $230 and closed at $236, a slight enhance of two.6%. This yr is an exception to the final downtrend.
2016: Opened at $570 and closed at $608, a rise of 6.67%. One other exception to the downtrend.
2017: Opened at $4,734 and closed at $4,326, a decline of 8.62%. This yr noticed a major intra-month drop of practically 40%.
2018: Opened at $7,015 and closed at $6,597, a decline of 5.96%.
2019: Opened at $9,593 and closed at $8,298, a decline of 13.49%.
2020: Opened at $11,658 and closed at $10,778, a decline of seven.55%.
2021: Opened at $47,118 and closed at $43,834, a decline of 6.97%.
2022: Opened at $20,049 and closed at $19,429, a decline of three.09%.
Common September Decline
Excluding the 2 years (2015 and 2016) the place Bitcoin noticed a rise in September, the common decline for the remaining years is roughly 9.03%.
Soruce: TradingView
12 months-by-12 months Amplitude Evaluation:
For Bitcoin, the month of September has traditionally been characterised by vital value fluctuations. An in depth examination of the previous 9 years reveals the amplitude of those value actions, offering a clearer image of the cryptocurrency’s September habits. Beneath makes use of system: (Excessive – Low) / Low.
2014: Bitcoin skilled an amplitude of 36.16%, swinging between a low of $365 and a excessive of $497.
2015: The amplitude was extra subdued this yr, recorded at 10.31%, with the value oscillating between $223 and $246.
2016: Bitcoin’s amplitude stood at 10.95%, as the value moved between $566 and $628.
2017: This yr noticed a dramatic amplitude of 67.43%, with Bitcoin’s value starting from $2,973 to a excessive of $4,979.
2018: The amplitude was 21.62%, as Bitcoin’s value different between $6,094 and $7,411.
2019: Bitcoin skilled a major amplitude of 41.97%, with the value fluctuating between $7,714 and $10,949.
2020: The amplitude for this yr was 22.60%, as Bitcoin’s value moved throughout the vary of $9,825 and $12,065.
2021: Bitcoin’s amplitude was recorded at 33.81%, with costs swinging between $39,573 and $52,956.
2022: The amplitude stood at 25.47%, as Bitcoin’s value different between $18,157 and $22,781.’
Beneath makes use of system: (Excessive – Low) / ( (Excessive + Low)/2 ).
2014: The amplitude was 28.91%, with Bitcoin costs ranging between a low of $365 and a excessive of $497.
2015: Bitcoin’s amplitude stood at 10.14%, oscillating between $223 and $246.
2016: The amplitude for the yr was 10.77%, as Bitcoin’s costs moved from a low of $566 to a excessive of $628.
2017: Bitcoin skilled an amplitude of fifty.15%, with costs fluctuating between $2,973 and $4,979.
2018: The amplitude for the yr was 20.18%, as Bitcoin’s costs different between $6,094 and $7,411.
2019: Bitcoin noticed an amplitude of 33.33%, with costs starting from $7,714 to $10,949.
2020: The amplitude for the yr stood at 20.41%, as Bitcoin’s costs oscillated between $9,825 and $12,065.
2021: Bitcoin’s amplitude was 28.28%, with costs transferring between $39,573 and $52,956.
2022: The amplitude for the yr was 22.22%, as Bitcoin’s costs different between $18,157 and $22,781.
Common September Amplitude
The common amplitude for Bitcoin in September over time 2014 to 2022 utilizing the standard system is roughly 29.92%. Utilizing the choice system, the common amplitude is roughly 24.91%
Present Bitcoin Information
Bitcoin kicked off September 2023 with a gap value of $25,927. Regardless of reaching a month-to-month excessive of $26,429, the cryptocurrency skilled a dip, recording a low of $25,333. On the time of writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $25,850.
As September progresses, Bitcoin, market analysts have projected potential low factors for Bitcoin by the shut of September.
Predicting the Future Based mostly on Historic Traits
Historic Declines: Delving into previous performances, Bitcoin’s most pronounced September decline was -3.09% in 2022. If 2023 mirrors this pattern, Bitcoin might doubtlessly settle across the $25,107 mark by month-end.
The common decline over time hovers at roughly -9.22%. If this common is indicative of this yr’s efficiency, Bitcoin may conclude September close to $23,530.
Amplitude Evaluation: Using the choice amplitude system, Bitcoin’s amplitude for September 2018 was discerned to be roughly 19.51%. Essentially the most restrained September amplitude was recorded in 2015 at 10.31%. If this month’s value actions align with this subdued amplitude, predominantly within the downward trajectory, Bitcoin’s valuation might diminish to $23,240 by the tip of September.
Factoring within the common amplitude over time, which stands at roughly 27.21%, a worst-case state of affairs might see Bitcoin descending to a regarding $18,860 by month’s shut.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s value has the potential to defy historic tendencies and shut September above $25,927, akin to the constructive performances noticed in 2015 and 2016.
Whereas these projections present a lens into historic tendencies, the inherently unstable nature of cryptocurrencies means that precise outcomes might differ. Buyers and merchants are suggested to train prudence and stay abreast of market developments.
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